The Czerniakow Bridgehead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 278 (54 on the archive and 224 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 130
Defender wins (Russian / Partisan (AK)): 147
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1013 | 982 | 54% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1091 | 50% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1091 | 37% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 965 | 876 | 63% | 2021-04-03 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1173 | 34% | 2019-12-26 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | Won |
| 1065 | 1106 | 44% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 965 | 970 | 49% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2018-01-24 | Lost |
| 993 | 1023 | 46% | 2017-05-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1036 | 48% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 1238 | 893 | 88% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1106 | 1107 | 50% | 2016-11-19 | Won |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2016-10-02 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2016-09-30 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1025 | 68% | 2016-08-10 | Lost |
| 1101 | 907 | 75% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 991 | 1006 | 48% | 2015-01-15 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1011 | 54% | 2014-10-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1089 | 69% | 2014-02-07 | Lost |
| 1047 | 916 | 68% | 2014-01-11 | Won |
| 1151 | 1055 | 63% | 2013-11-12 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1073 | 72% | 2013-07-21 | Won |
| 1073 | 1238 | 28% | 2013-07-15 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1006 | 51% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1006 | 51% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1043 | 31% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1169 | 30% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 1006 | 957 | 57% | 2012-09-30 | Won |
| 924 | 951 | 46% | 2011-10-14 | Won |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2011-09-26 | Lost |
| 924 | 924 | 50% | 2011-08-21 | Lost |
| 972 | 949 | 53% | 2011-07-13 | Lost |
| 944 | 1087 | 31% | 2011-04-27 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1116 | 57% | 2011-01-19 | Won |
| 903 | 1028 | 33% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1048 | 947 | 64% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1043 | 841 | 76% | 2009-02-08 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1133 | 63% | 2007-01-26 | Lost |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-06-06 | Won |
| 1006 | 975 | 54% | 2004-11-20 | Lost |
| 862 | 968 | 35% | 2004-08-30 | Lost |
| 1006 | 881 | 67% | 2004-08-16 | Lost |
| 1066 | 967 | 64% | 2004-03-28 | Lost |
| 1208 | 979 | 79% | 2002-06-16 | Won |
| 829 | 847 | 47% | 2002-05-01 | Won |
| 1055 | 1098 | 44% | 2002-03-09 | Lost |
| 957 | 1074 | 34% | 1998-09-22 | Won |
| 1051 | 1037 | 52% | 1998-03-20 | Lost |
| 881 | 1084 | 24% | 1994-03-04 | Won |
| 1024 | 981 | 56% | 1991-04-13 | Tied |
| 1120 | 966 | 71% | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1028 vs 1011.1 has a 52.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).