Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 312 (55 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 165
Defender wins (German): 146
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 981 | 1038 | 42% | 2024-11-17 | Lost |
| 831 | 1000 | 27% | 2024-04-21 | Lost |
| 930 | 992 | 41% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 995 | 922 | 60% | 2021-06-16 | Lost |
| 800 | 819 | 47% | 2020-10-05 | Won |
| 1040 | 1046 | 49% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1299 | 16% | 2020-08-12 | Won |
| 971 | 928 | 56% | 2020-08-03 | Tied |
| 1031 | 1038 | 49% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1113 | 995 | 66% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 999 | 1057 | 42% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1124 | 1146 | 47% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 999 | 995 | 51% | 2020-03-05 | Won |
| 1003 | 980 | 53% | 2020-02-28 | Won |
| 1141 | 1279 | 31% | 2018-09-05 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2017-11-23 | Won |
| 897 | 927 | 46% | 2017-08-08 | Won |
| 954 | 990 | 45% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 956 | 968 | 48% | 2017-03-21 | Won |
| 968 | 956 | 52% | 2017-03-04 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1239 | 31% | 2016-12-07 | Lost |
| 947 | 1120 | 27% | 2015-11-16 | Won |
| 916 | 982 | 41% | 2015-06-14 | Won |
| 986 | 971 | 52% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1037 | 998 | 56% | 2014-08-02 | Won |
| 1135 | 1161 | 46% | 2014-06-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1005 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 947 | 1155 | 23% | 2012-10-07 | Won |
| 981 | 996 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 1209 | 968 | 80% | 2012-08-04 | Won |
| 1096 | 1094 | 50% | 2011-10-09 | Won |
| 1010 | 1005 | 51% | 2010-01-21 | Lost |
| 916 | 995 | 39% | 2009-11-27 | Won |
| 984 | 916 | 60% | 2009-09-29 | Won |
| 992 | 995 | 50% | 2009-02-26 | Lost |
| 995 | 1228 | 21% | 2008-11-01 | Won |
| 1146 | 1134 | 52% | 2008-01-21 | Won |
| 1046 | 1060 | 48% | 2006-02-10 | Lost |
| 1049 | 976 | 60% | 2004-09-19 | Lost |
| 955 | 994 | 44% | 2004-09-19 | Won |
| 1029 | 1058 | 46% | 2004-07-25 | Won |
| 963 | 1046 | 38% | 2002-10-13 | Won |
| 983 | 829 | 71% | 2002-06-01 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1062 | 58% | 2001-05-06 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1183 | 40% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 963 | 1083 | 33% | 2000-08-26 | Won |
| 969 | 947 | 53% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 840 | 954 | 34% | 1999-01-23 | Lost |
| 1183 | 856 | 87% | 1995-11-08 | Won |
| 1040 | 919 | 67% | 1993-10-01 | Won |
| 976 | 953 | 53% | 1993-08-07 | Lost |
| 1132 | 839 | 84% | | Lost |
| 1132 | 839 | 84% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1013.7 vs 1017.9 has a 49.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).