Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59
Attacker wins (German): 23
Defender wins (French): 36
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 923 | 968 | 44% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 922 | 995 | 40% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 988 | 995 | 49% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 1015 | 1113 | 36% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 961 | 1009 | 43% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 819 | 1011 | 25% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 998 | 1012 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 995 | 980 | 52% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 980 | 1003 | 47% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 965 | 986 | 47% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1200 | 42% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1259 | 998 | 82% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 916 | 1011 | 37% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 992 | 989 | 50% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 841 | 841 | 50% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 976 | 1190 | 23% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 927 | 897 | 54% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 968 | 1044 | 39% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 964 | 63% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1133 | 39% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1145 | 50% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 999 | 995 | 51% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 999 | 995 | 51% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1120 | 69% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1043 | 951 | 63% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1081 | 1098 | 48% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 874 | 1067 | 25% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 889 | 1067 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1094 | 50% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 1155 | 1251 | 37% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1155 | 49% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 992 | 1018 | 46% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 975 | 986 | 48% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1025 | 49% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1113 | 1146 | 45% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1057 | 49% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 1134 | 1146 | 48% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 995 | 916 | 61% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 959 | 1138 | 26% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 995 | 992 | 50% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 995 | 1228 | 21% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 995 | 919 | 61% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1075 | 43% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 947 | 1026 | 39% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1279 | 1309 | 46% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1098 | 44% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 963 | 1013 | 43% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1146 | 36% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 969 | 947 | 53% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 976 | 1142 | 28% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1062 | 832 | 79% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1299 | 34% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1040 | 33% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1021.9 vs 1046.1 has a 46.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).