Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 151 (28 on the archive and 123 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 68
Defender wins (Polish): 83
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1090 | 37% | 2024-08-05 | Lost |
| 980 | 995 | 48% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1299 | 1011 | 84% | 2021-11-08 | Lost |
| 819 | 797 | 53% | 2021-10-12 | Lost |
| 922 | 995 | 40% | 2021-06-26 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1120 | 947 | 73% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 980 | 1003 | 47% | 2020-01-13 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1146 | 48% | 2019-12-10 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1157 | 64% | 2019-04-30 | Lost |
| 924 | 1034 | 35% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 974 | 1035 | 41% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1030 | 63% | 2015-02-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1040 | 53% | 2013-05-24 | Won |
| 906 | 1084 | 26% | 2011-10-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-04-30 | Won |
| 739 | 1047 | 15% | 2010-04-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2009-05-03 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1029 | 57% | 2007-11-17 | Won |
| 1223 | 1050 | 73% | 2003-07-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 976 | 60% | 2001-11-02 | Won |
| 1046 | 1040 | 51% | 2000-06-15 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1062 | 43% | 1999-10-01 | Won |
| 988 | 963 | 54% | 1999-03-26 | Won |
| 911 | 1146 | 21% | 1999-03-18 | Won |
| 945 | 1183 | 20% | 1999-03-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 996 | 61% | 1998-11-17 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1026.1 vs 1041.5 has a 47.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).