Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (30 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 39
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1148 | 1058 | 63% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 980 | 1003 | 47% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 971 | 1126 | 29% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1175 | 34% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 946 | 1230 | 16% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 1064 | 903 | 72% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 992 | 1173 | 26% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 964 | 947 | 52% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 968 | 50% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1162 | 1207 | 44% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1043 | 841 | 76% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 982 | 73% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1171 | 1230 | 42% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1124 | 69% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 995 | 881 | 66% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 952 | 1016 | 41% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 946 | 916 | 54% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1158 | 29% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 982 | 73% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1158 | 29% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1079 | 963 | 66% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 992 | 989 | 50% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 963 | 1083 | 33% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1075 | 32% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1309 | 14% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 971 | 1309 | 13% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1008 | 73% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1132 | 981 | 70% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1044.1 vs 1056.4 has a 48.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).