The Guards Counterattack
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 568 (19 on the archive and 549 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 278
Defender wins (German): 290
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 875 | 947 | 40% | 2020-11-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1021 | 61% | 2019-04-08 | Lost |
| 888 | 952 | 41% | 2018-03-19 | Lost |
| 1096 | 944 | 71% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1002 | 50% | 2013-07-25 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1035 | 51% | 2013-03-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1010 | 50% | 2012-11-01 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1137 | 50% | 2011-12-15 | Won |
| 1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2011-09-27 | Won |
| 1062 | 1026 | 55% | 2010-03-11 | Lost |
| 977 | 959 | 53% | 2009-08-12 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1126 | 39% | 2009-04-18 | Won |
| 1135 | 1005 | 68% | 2009-01-20 | Won |
| 1086 | 1075 | 52% | 2004-09-01 | Won |
| 979 | 1183 | 24% | 2003-05-20 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1178 | 44% | 1999-02-15 | Lost |
| 1178 | 985 | 75% | 1992-06-14 | Lost |
| 976 | 939 | 55% | 1990-09-01 | Won |
| 992 | 1062 | 40% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1037.9 vs 1031.3 has a 50.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).