Prelude to Festung Brest
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60
Attacker wins (American): 25
Defender wins (German): 33
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 966 | 988 | 47% | 2024-09-19 | Won |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2024-08-09 | Won |
| 1065 | 1007 | 58% | 2023-12-03 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1065 | 42% | 2023-11-30 | Won |
| 1080 | 1115 | 45% | 2023-11-12 | Won |
| 945 | 911 | 55% | 2023-11-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1041 | 49% | 2023-09-28 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1236 | 48% | 2023-06-19 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2023-01-09 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2023-01-05 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1186 | 42% | 2022-08-19 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1040 | 47% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-10-05 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-09-14 | Lost |
| 830 | 881 | 43% | 2021-08-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2021-02-22 | Won |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 1040 | 981 | 58% | 2021-01-17 | Won |
| 1076 | 918 | 71% | 2021-01-01 | Lost |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2020-12-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 954 | 56% | 2020-11-05 | Lost |
| 982 | 954 | 54% | 2020-11-02 | Won |
| 954 | 982 | 46% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1116 | 1179 | 41% | 2020-07-09 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1041 | 50% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 926 | 993 | 40% | 2020-02-24 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1028 | 47% | 2019-03-27 | Lost |
| 988 | 983 | 51% | 2019-02-22 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1021 | 53% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1101 | 51% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1189 | 1128 | 59% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1003 | 1040 | 45% | 2017-04-17 | Lost |
| 993 | 1323 | 13% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 893 | 76% | 2016-12-27 | Won |
| 880 | 881 | 50% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1014 | 954 | 59% | 2016-07-26 | Won |
| 1040 | 881 | 71% | 2016-07-26 | Tied |
| 1178 | 1431 | 19% | 2015-11-19 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-07-24 | Won |
| 1099 | 1113 | 48% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1074 | 1144 | 40% | 2014-12-26 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1079 | 47% | 2014-06-03 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-01-30 | Won |
| 1209 | 1209 | 50% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-04-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 1038 | 49% | 2012-11-11 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1040 | 47% | 2011-08-02 | Won |
| 1021 | 1040 | 47% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 988 | 49% | 2010-11-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 982 | 58% | 2010-05-22 | Lost |
| 936 | 936 | 50% | 2010-02-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1228 | 37% | 2009-10-14 | Won |
| 915 | 1006 | 37% | 2009-05-14 | Lost |
| 890 | 931 | 44% | 2009-01-28 | Lost |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2009-01-15 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1215 | 24% | 2009-01-04 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1091 | 42% | 2008-10-17 | Lost |
| 1094 | 984 | 65% | 2006-10-22 | Lost |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1037.6 vs 1041.6 has a 49.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).