Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (Canadian): 6
Defender wins (Italian): 14
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 960 | 53% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 995 | 995 | 50% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 978 | 978 | 50% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1084 | 50% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1239 | 31% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 975 | 1006 | 46% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1062 | 981 | 61% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1279 | 1323 | 44% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1279 | 1159 | 67% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 1074 | 49% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1208 | 1208 | 50% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 916 | 1167 | 19% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1279 | 11% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1164 | 46% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1030 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1074 | 41% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 957 | 1210 | 19% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 881 | 1011 | 32% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1045.1 vs 1105.3 has a 41.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).