Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 172 (46 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 73
Defender wins (German): 95
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1302 | 963 | 88% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 946 | 932 | 52% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1200 | 40% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 957 | 990 | 45% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 819 | 1047 | 21% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 975 | 930 | 56% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1040 | 942 | 64% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 1003 | 1011 | 49% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 1200 | 946 | 81% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 930 | 963 | 45% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1032 | 59% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1030 | 981 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 947 | 964 | 48% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 992 | 55% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 968 | 52% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 1057 | 61% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1101 | 1062 | 56% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1120 | 37% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1120 | 947 | 73% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 976 | 1207 | 21% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1019 | 954 | 59% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1036 | 48% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1223 | 1169 | 58% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1084 | 59% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 898 | 927 | 46% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1148 | 37% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1155 | 999 | 71% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 963 | 916 | 57% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 976 | 1023 | 43% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1067 | 982 | 62% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 986 | 63% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 995 | 999 | 49% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1223 | 1029 | 75% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 924 | 1013 | 37% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1145 | 1146 | 50% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1309 | 1001 | 85% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 1134 | 1146 | 48% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1043 | 966 | 61% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1279 | 1190 | 63% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 1098 | 922 | 73% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1191 | 1183 | 51% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1066.6 vs 1030 has a 55.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).