Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (25 on the archive and 51 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 40
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 946 | 868 | 61% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1000 | 1155 | 29% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1057 | 999 | 58% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 918 | 995 | 39% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 918 | 995 | 39% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1036 | 987 | 57% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 976 | 984 | 49% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 976 | 1140 | 28% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1041 | 918 | 67% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 963 | 938 | 54% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1045 | 1045 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1207 | 1215 | 49% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1207 | 1215 | 49% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 931 | 921 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 931 | 921 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1081 | 29% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1096 | 50% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 922 | 995 | 40% | 2015-10-07 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1183 | 27% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 995 | 999 | 49% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1279 | 1178 | 64% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1223 | 49% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1230 | 1052 | 74% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1080 | 49% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1120 | 947 | 73% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1040.6 vs 1045.2 has a 49.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).