Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60 (19 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 29
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1057 | 932 | 67% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1146 | 1134 | 52% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1279 | 31% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 868 | 946 | 39% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1048 | 55% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 922 | 995 | 40% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 957 | 1000 | 44% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 1092 | 976 | 66% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 995 | 999 | 49% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1015 | 1036 | 47% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1043 | 53% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1084 | 1071 | 52% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1043 | 1084 | 44% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1279 | 17% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1239 | 24% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 976 | 980 | 49% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1078 | 916 | 72% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1275 | 976 | 85% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1223 | 1125 | 64% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1055.6 vs 1055.7 has a 49.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).