Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (16 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 27
Defender wins (German): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 1233 | 19% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 913 | 964 | 43% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1155 | 58% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1120 | 64% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1040 | 46% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1031 | 868 | 72% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 957 | 968 | 48% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 922 | 1098 | 27% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1038 | 916 | 67% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 976 | 916 | 59% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 992 | 989 | 50% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 995 | 999 | 49% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 986 | 1062 | 39% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1279 | 1275 | 51% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1120 | 1080 | 56% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1037.3 vs 1042.7 has a 49.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).