The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 238 (40 on the archive and 198 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 101
Defender wins (Russian): 137
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 876 | 965 | 37% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 965 | 876 | 63% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1087 | 48% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 1006 | 988 | 53% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 960 | 975 | 48% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1020 | 55% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1020 | 55% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1029 | 52% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 965 | 1009 | 44% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 993 | 1023 | 46% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1101 | 45% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1238 | 903 | 87% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 907 | 1024 | 34% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 878 | 907 | 46% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 897 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 1124 | 1101 | 53% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1101 | 907 | 75% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1238 | 16% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 1006 | 957 | 57% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 944 | 1087 | 31% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 967 | 48% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 1053 | 52% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1006 | 962 | 56% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 881 | 1098 | 22% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 903 | 853 | 57% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 907 | 1213 | 15% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1285 | 1309 | 47% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 907 | 878 | 54% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 975 | 1006 | 46% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 967 | 64% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1208 | 1148 | 59% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 947 | 988 | 44% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 923 | 1074 | 30% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 1084 | 881 | 76% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 1024 | 981 | 56% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | | Lost |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1005.7 vs 1008.3 has a 49.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).