Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Japanese): 11
Defender wins (French): 10
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1178 | 1149 | 54% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 916 | 918 | 50% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1049 | 55% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1110 | 47% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 975 | 1006 | 46% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 920 | 976 | 42% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1184 | 1122 | 59% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 959 | 959 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1046 | 1074 | 46% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 986 | 981 | 51% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 959 | 54% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1279 | 1111 | 72% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1043 | 1149 | 35% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1055 | 881 | 73% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 947 | 1042 | 37% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 955 | 924 | 54% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1120 | 63% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1027.8 vs 1038 has a 48.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).