Agony at Arnautovo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 995 | 995 | 50% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 932 | 932 | 50% | 2021-04-16 | Won |
| 954 | 1075 | 33% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1046 | 1040 | 51% | 2020-07-08 | Lost |
| 966 | 959 | 51% | 2020-01-25 | Won |
| 1075 | 1087 | 48% | 2013-11-29 | Won |
| 881 | 1001 | 33% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 1074 | 916 | 71% | 2011-06-12 | Won |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2011-04-20 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1047 | 46% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1043 | 1015 | 54% | 2010-12-21 | Won |
| 989 | 1151 | 28% | 2010-05-01 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1005 | 51% | 2009-12-18 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1279 | 35% | 2009-09-12 | Lost |
| 907 | 1035 | 32% | 2008-11-08 | Lost |
| 1008 | 976 | 55% | 2008-07-10 | Lost |
| 967 | 995 | 46% | 2007-11-30 | Lost |
| 988 | 881 | 65% | 2007-10-09 | Won |
| 1074 | 1185 | 35% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 965 | 1120 | 29% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1007.8 vs 1033.9 has a 46.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).