The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German): 7
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1084 | 1106 | 47% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1071 | 976 | 63% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 976 | 1086 | 35% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1230 | 1166 | 59% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 976 | 1063 | 38% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1209 | 907 | 85% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 1005 | 999 | 51% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1018 | 1006 | 52% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 980 | 976 | 51% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1164 | 43% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1279 | 1061 | 78% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1309 | 17% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1279 | 37% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1098 | 881 | 78% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1093 | 48% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1169 | 970 | 76% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1120 | 56% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1098.4 vs 1068.4 has a 54.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).