The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 14
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1027 | 896 | 68% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 1027 | 896 | 68% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 896 | 1027 | 32% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 962 | 1006 | 44% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1040 | 51% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1070 | 56% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1012 | 56% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 732 | 881 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1207 | 865 | 88% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 907 | 78% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 881 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1230 | 852 | 90% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1209 | 1169 | 56% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1069 | 1101 | 45% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1043 | 54% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 1006 | 1018 | 48% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 903 | 917 | 48% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1142 | 916 | 79% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1009 | 61% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 911 | 907 | 51% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 955 | 1087 | 32% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 955 | 1145 | 25% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1210 | 36% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1019.7 vs 999.9 has a 52.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).