The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (12 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 22
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 975 | 1006 | 46% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 907 | 1024 | 34% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1060 | 947 | 66% | 2021-02-17 | Won |
| 903 | 876 | 54% | 2016-04-03 | Won |
| 1009 | 1087 | 39% | 2015-10-24 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1098 | 51% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1047 | 998 | 57% | 2014-04-12 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1054 | 49% | 2014-04-07 | Lost |
| 887 | 1135 | 19% | 2014-02-12 | Won |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1098 | 52% | 2013-10-07 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 992.5 vs 1025.4 has a 45.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).