The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 123 (25 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 60
Defender wins (Japanese): 63
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1238 | 1005 | 79% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 986 | 949 | 55% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 1027 | 896 | 68% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1027 | 896 | 68% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 896 | 1027 | 32% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 896 | 1027 | 32% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1124 | 1027 | 64% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1018 | 48% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1006 | 52% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1218 | 947 | 83% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1036 | 53% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1169 | 36% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1210 | 988 | 78% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 841 | 903 | 41% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 976 | 916 | 59% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1101 | 28% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1279 | 27% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1074 | 1026 | 57% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1130 | 1084 | 57% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 968 | 1010 | 44% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 939 | 976 | 45% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1075 | 52% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1026.7 vs 1011 has a 52.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).