Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 107 (40 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 50
Defender wins (Polish): 57
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 989 | 1106 | 34% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1164 | 55% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 949 | 932 | 52% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1031 | 986 | 56% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 985 | 965 | 53% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1101 | 1085 | 52% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1207 | 970 | 80% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 936 | 903 | 55% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1000 | 823 | 73% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1000 | 978 | 53% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 960 | 1085 | 33% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 965 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 945 | 1169 | 22% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1066 | 64% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1084 | 48% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 980 | 1239 | 18% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 863 | 903 | 44% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1011 | 959 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1020 | 63% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1113 | 37% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1239 | 965 | 83% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1074 | 1120 | 43% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 926 | 965 | 44% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1001 | 965 | 55% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 982 | 41% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1065 | 55% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1036 | 53% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 965 | 997 | 45% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 900 | 931 | 46% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1207 | 931 | 83% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 1279 | 988 | 84% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 933 | 1074 | 31% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1043 | 44% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1018 | 48% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1101 | 28% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1230 | 1052 | 74% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 840 | 1120 | 17% | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1027.1 vs 1024.7 has a 50.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).