Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (9 on the archive and 20 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 14
Defender wins (German): 15
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1209 | 23% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 898 | 1058 | 28% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1103 | 49% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 907 | 1024 | 34% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 971 | 903 | 60% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1005 | 79% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1207 | 1156 | 57% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 976 | 1207 | 21% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1019.3 vs 1074.6 has a 42.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).