Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1238 | 927 | 86% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1062 | 947 | 66% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1164 | 43% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 739 | 819 | 39% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1292 | 1092 | 76% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 958 | 966 | 49% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 907 | 1024 | 34% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 916 | 976 | 41% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 903 | 73% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1020.8 vs 992.3 has a 54.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).