Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 104 (31 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 56
Defender wins (German): 48
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1092 | 976 | 66% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 1006 | 975 | 54% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1403 | 970 | 92% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 1116 | 971 | 70% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 949 | 1164 | 22% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1018 | 48% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1106 | 51% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1018 | 949 | 60% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1018 | 48% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1403 | 10% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 932 | 882 | 57% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 882 | 1031 | 30% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1044 | 62% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1230 | 1021 | 77% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1015 | 47% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1015 | 971 | 56% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 970 | 891 | 61% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 995 | 52% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1045 | 1074 | 46% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 923 | 976 | 42% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1117 | 947 | 73% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1121 | 39% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 907 | 898 | 51% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1238 | 1005 | 79% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1097 | 1239 | 31% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1210 | 20% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1187 | 1209 | 47% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 881 | 1006 | 33% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1036 | 53% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1279 | 1141 | 69% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1052.9 vs 1041.1 has a 51.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).